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Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:02 pm
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Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2009 1:36 am
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Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2009 4:27 am
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Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:30 am
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Rainbowfied Mouse Vice Captain
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Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2009 1:59 pm
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Quote: I doubt this will be a repeat of Tiananmen Square... the protests are much larger
Tiananmen was around a million. Iran has yet to mobilize that many on the streets.
Quote: and the groups are more varied than some student activists.
Tiananmen included widely disparate groups. Some were disillusioned party officials, some were pro-democratic reformers, some were communist out-groups, and some were students. Low and behold, Iran has no shortage of students among its protesters either.
Quote: The playfield is much different, as China is a communist regime, and Iran is a pseudo-Democracy
The China of Tiananmen Square was a post-Maoist society, where the horrors of the Cultural Revolution had caused a significant step back from hard line Maoist Communism. China by this time had undergone significant market reforms and had gone through a period as a full-fledged US ally. Iran, on the other hand, is still a hard line fundamentalist regime, and has not had the full excesses of that ideology thrust upon its populace and led into discredit. Mousavi himself doesn't really fit the bill as a reformist, and most of these elections are just dog and pony shows where the real power will be wielded by the clerical council. The population is only thirty years removed from the Iranian Revolution, and only a little more than 20 years removed from the Iran-Iraq war. If anything, Iran isn't developed enough for a Tiananmen Square yet, China was much further along.
Quote: so they still have rights,
You don't really believe that, do you? In Iran, while Ahmedinejad was president opposition publications were shut down, cultural police enforced the burka rules, and outside media and communications were heavily policed or blocked outright. I think you've fallen in with some people who've romanticized a bit more about Iran than the truth really justifies.
Quote: let's just hope that the Clerics decide to allow a forced resignation of the current president.
Fat chance of that.
Quote: I think with all the attention the protests are getting the infrastructure of the nation is doomed to fall at some point.
One has nothing to do with the other.
Quote: Even though they don't have a military to currently back them up, something will happen.
Ahmedinejad was not without support, and in fact, many reputable polling agencies reported no surge at all for Mousavi in the polling leading up to the election. The numbers these early polls produced showed Ahmedinejad winning by about the margin the Clerics certified. If so, even if so dissident element of the Revolutionary Guard or police did back the protesters, the Basij militia were heavy Ahmedinejad supporters and may have an even greater supply of manpower to draw on, and will have all the weapons they need from the state.
Quote: If Iran decides to use their military on the protests I'm positive the world will step in.
There's an old saying: There's only ever been five people in history who've died for you; Jesus Christ, the American soldier, the British soldier, the Australian soldier, and the Canadian soldier. If you think the world is going to get involved, who on earth is going to lead them? Obama is taking a strict hands off approach. The rest of the anglo-sphere isn't touching this until America steps in. And good luck getting anyone else in Europe to lead the charge. Sarkozy doesn't have the equipment, Merkel has no projection capability, and the Italian, Polish, and Spanish militaries combined couldn't conquer a Persian brothel. Face it, unless we go in, nobody else will.
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Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 5:23 pm
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Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:46 am
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Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 8:18 am
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Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 11:24 am
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Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:06 am
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http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/29/iran.election/index.html
In short, they're beat. Some choice excerpts:
Quote: No Iranian presidential candidates had filed complaints as a Monday deadline approached in the country's disputed presidential election
Quote: Moussavi rejected the offer of a partial recount and refused to appoint a representative to the committee,
Quote: At least 17 protesters have been killed, according to official statistics, and the actual number may be higher.
Quote: about 5,000 people shuffled in silence down Tehran's Shariati Street to the Ghoba mosque.
As I said before, Tiananmen Square. They rallied, the government crushed them, now all that's going are are sad funeral marches to mourn their dead attempts at liberty. The status quo prevailed in Iran. Now we in the west need to do two things, abandon the notion that anything we do will have an impact on the reform movement since that movement is now dead as a smelt, and make a call on whether or not we're going to let that nation have nuclear weapons.
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Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 1:41 pm
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Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:32 pm
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Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:53 am
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Posted: Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:56 pm
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