****PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN****
Key dates: 4/30-AMZN, AMD, SMCI 5/1- FOMC 5/14- GOOGL IO conference, 5/21- MSFT build conference 5/22- NVDA Earnings
Positions– : >1300 MSTR 2.4 5/17, -9.45 >850-870 NVDA (5/24)
- >190 AMZN (5/17 2.21)
->445 QQQ (5/24 .37)
- >840 NVDA (5/17), >900 (5/3), 900 to 935 -10.37 5/10
- >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95
-Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Monday: N/A
Tuesday: AMD, AMZN, SMCI earnings
Wednesday: FOMC, Jolts, ADP
Thursday: Jobless claims, fedspeak, AAPL earnings
Friday: NFP, global services PMI
Long ideas (4/21):
-AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral)
-Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari
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Notes:
-Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive
-Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures)
-Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later.
-Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling
-cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
-Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
