Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing! -Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
****PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN**** Key dates: 4/30-AMZN, AMD, SMCI 5/1- FOMC 5/14- GOOGL IO conference, 5/21- MSFT build conference 5/22- NVDA Earnings
-Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Monday plan: -bear call MSTR (can do this later) -Add onto bear puts ATM & butterfly call target 907. Prepare for break out in either direction from AMD/SMCI or FOMC. ^Take profits early on butterfly call, keep bear puts open if not already 50% return after earnings or FOMC -Try to close MU butterfly, not enough liquidity. -CC on Meta and MSFT -Excess BP can be used on Cava or Chipotle bull put spread
-<165, >190 AMZN (5/17 3.6, 2.21) ^META will be a bellwether for AMZN. Llama3 built on Bedrock, suggesting increasing demand throughout 2024 for AWS and AMZN’s GenAI growth ->430 .37 5/3, >445 QQQ (5/24 .37)
- >840 NVDA (5/10), >900 (5/3)
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
****PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN**** Key dates: 4/30-AMZN, AMD, SMCI 5/1- FOMC 5/14- GOOGL IO conference, 5/21- MSFT build conference 5/22- NVDA Earnings
-Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Monday plan: -bear call MSTR (can do this later) -Add onto bear puts ATM & butterfly call target 907. Prepare for break out in either direction from AMD/SMCI or FOMC. ^Take profits early on butterfly call, keep bear puts open if not already 50% return after earnings or FOMC -Try to close MU butterfly, not enough liquidity. -CC on Meta and MSFT -Excess BP can be used on Cava or Chipotle bull put spread
-<165, >190 AMZN (5/17 3.6, 2.21) ^META will be a bellwether for AMZN. Llama3 built on Bedrock, suggesting increasing demand throughout 2024 for AWS and AMZN’s GenAI growth ->430 .37 5/3, >445 QQQ (5/24 .37)
- >840 NVDA (5/10), >900 (5/3)
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
****PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN**** Key dates: 4/30-AMZN, AMD, SMCI 5/1- FOMC 5/14- GOOGL IO conference, 5/21- MSFT build conference 5/22- NVDA Earnings
-Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Monday plan: -bear call MSTR (can do this later) -Add onto bear puts ATM & butterfly call target 907. Prepare for break out in either direction from AMD/SMCI or FOMC. ^Take profits early on butterfly call, keep bear puts open if not already 50% return after earnings or FOMC -Try to close MU butterfly, not enough liquidity. -CC on Meta and MSFT -Excess BP can be used on Cava or Chipotle bull put spread
-<165, >190 AMZN (5/17 3.6, 2.21) ^META will be a bellwether for AMZN. Llama3 built on Bedrock, suggesting increasing demand throughout 2024 for AWS and AMZN’s GenAI growth ->430 .37 5/3, >445 QQQ (5/24 .37)
- >840 NVDA (5/10), >900 (5/3)
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
****PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN**** Key dates: 4/30-AMZN, AMD, SMCI 5/1- FOMC 5/14- GOOGL IO conference, 5/21- MSFT build conference 5/22- NVDA Earnings
-Keep in mind 0.66 a contract. Need at least 0.03 to break-even on a normal spread open and close (think 0.027 debited).
Monday plan: -bear call MSTR (can do this later) -Add onto bear puts ATM & butterfly call target 907. Prepare for break out in either direction from AMD/SMCI or FOMC. ^Take profits early on butterfly call, keep bear puts open if not already 50% return after earnings or FOMC -Try to close MU butterfly, not enough liquidity. -CC on Meta and MSFT -Excess BP can be used on Cava or Chipotle bull put spread
-<165, >190 AMZN (5/17 3.6, 2.21) ^META will be a bellwether for AMZN. Llama3 built on Bedrock, suggesting increasing demand throughout 2024 for AWS and AMZN’s GenAI growth ->430 .37 5/3, >445 QQQ (5/24 .37)
- >840 NVDA (5/10), >900 (5/3)
- don’t touch: >890 NVDA (5/24) -1.95, <830 2.39 ^Must be >890 or <830 after earnings, then close. If in between, need to manage. -Long term: >500 META 6/20/2025 -94.1
Events of the week: AMD, AMZN, SMCI, AAPL earnings. FOMC, Jolts, ADP, and NFP
Long ideas (4/21): -AVGO: The true picks and shovels for AI chip expansion. Required for the buildout for CSP chip competitors with NVDA. VMWare acquisition is extremely value accretive, creating a very lucrative software branch of the chip giant.
Current 2023 fed hawkishness that are voting members: Dovish-Goolsbee, Cook, Harker (neutral), Barr (neutral) -Hawks-least to most hawkish : Jefferson, Williams, Powell, Loretta Mester, Logan, Waller, Bowman, Kashkari —-------------------------------------- Notes: -Jan and July OPEX historically negative while April is positive -Quadruple witching: March, june, september, and december (index, index futures, stocks, stock futures) -Strong sectors for bull butterflies: Travel, semiconductors, asset managers (ABNB, ASML, BAM). Open on March 4th or later. -Bid/ask size: Large bid size= more demand/buying, large ask size= more supply/selling -cut losses and take profits without emotion. Only way to do that is appropriate position sizing!
