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Out of five packs (as of when this entry was written), I got:

arrow Laceback, Purse, Alpha Gram, Feathery Coatl
arrow 2 Lawnsharks, Lightning Bug, Laceback
arrow 3 Lightning Bugs, Buzz Kill
arrow 3 Lacebacks, Buzz Kill
arrow 2 Lacebacks, Alpha Gram, Lightning Bug.

If we count up the amount of fish there are [20], we can try and guess some damn odds.

Laceback - 7/20
Lawnshark - 2/20 = 1/10
Lightning Bug - 5/20 = 1/4
Alpha Gram - 2/20 = 1/10
Feathery Coatl - 1/20
Buzz Kill - 2/20 = 1/10
Purse - 1/20

Then technically, the most likely fish received wil be the Laceback.
In order:

#1 Laceback
#2 Lightning bug
#3 Lawnshark, Buzz Kill, Alpha Gram
#4 Buzz Kill, Purse

The problem is with these odds are that it's just luck when you open them. The fourth packet I opened, I prayed so hard with stomach pains at 2am in the morning and still got rubbish. Anyway, Lacebacks seem really common whilst things like Lawnsharks are really rare, which means that a Stone Coatl must be super rare.

Although actually, maybe this also depends on LUCK. So many factors apply. I know someone who has received 2 stone coatls out of 16 fish, and I know someone who believes that 2nd Strike Packets are better. Even if you get rubbish, they seem pretty decent to me.

I currently have no 1st or 2nd Strike data yet as of 8/19/2010.

- Clash